dLocal: Solid Growth and Shareholder Returns Offset by Deteriorating Take Rates and Weaker Profitability Outlook, Justifying a Hold Rating

In a report released yesterday, Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on DLocal, with a price target of $15.00.

Jorge Kuri has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to both operational performance and valuation. dLocal posted solid top-line trends and earnings slightly ahead of expectations, supported by strong TPV and revenue growth in its main markets, and the company reinforced shareholder returns through a sizeable buyback and a reiterated dividend policy, which together provide some support to the shares.

However, Kuri highlights that a sharper-than-anticipated decline in take rates and elevated expense levels undermine the quality and sustainability of the earnings beat. The 2026 guidance embeds lower profitability than consensus, with gross profit take rates resetting meaningfully below prior levels and implying downside risk not only to next year’s estimates but potentially to 2027 as well, leading him to see a balanced risk-reward profile that justifies a Hold rather than a more constructive rating.