Cracker Barrel: Early Strategic Progress but Persistent Traffic Headwinds Keep Rating at Hold

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger assigned a Hold rating on Cracker Barrel today and set a price target of $31.00.

Dennis Geiger has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Cracker Barrel’s recent performance and outlook. Same-store sales and traffic are still under pressure, largely reflecting lingering brand controversy and a tough macro environment, even though recent months show incremental improvement and management’s FY26 revenue and EBITDA guidance appears attainable, if not somewhat conservative, with easing commodity and labor inflation.

At the same time, Geiger acknowledges early traction from strategic initiatives such as menu innovation, value-focused offerings, operational enhancements, and the expanding loyalty program, which could support a gradual recovery in the second half and into FY27. However, with traffic expected to remain negative in FY26, limited visibility on the pace and durability of sales and margin recovery leads him to wait for clearer evidence of sustained improvement before adopting a more bullish stance, resulting in a Hold despite a modest price target increase.

Geiger covers the Consumer Cyclical sector, focusing on stocks such as CAVA Group, Inc., Brinker International, and Restaurant Brands International. According to TipRanks, Geiger has an average return of 2.7% and a 56.11% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released yesterday, Wells Fargo also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $35.00 price target.