Codexis: One-Off Merck Upside and siRNA Roadmap Support a Cautious Hold Rating

Brendan Smith, an analyst from TD Cowen, maintained the Hold rating on Codexis. The associated price target is $2.00.

Brendan Smith has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Codexis’ recent performance and future outlook. The company’s fourth-quarter revenue significantly exceeded expectations, largely because most of the large enzyme supply agreement with Merck was recognized in that period, and management also issued revenue guidance for the next year that was slightly ahead of consensus, supporting near‑term confidence.

However, the underlying product revenue was weaker than anticipated, and a substantial portion of the recent upside is linked to a single Merck payment rather than broad-based, recurring growth, limiting visibility beyond current contracts. While management has laid out an encouraging multi-year roadmap in siRNA manufacturing, including targeted CDMO and pharma partnerships and plans for a GMP facility, these catalysts still require solid execution, leading Smith to maintain a balanced, wait‑and‑see stance rather than a more decisive Buy or Sell recommendation.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 37 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of CDXS in relation to earlier this year.