Cleveland-Cliffs: Near-Term Earnings Pressure vs. Longer-Term Upside Leaves Risk-Reward Balanced at Hold

In a report released today, Alexander Hacking from Citi maintained a Hold rating on Cleveland-Cliffs, with a price target of $13.00.

Alexander Hacking has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Cleveland-Cliffs’ near-term earnings pressure and longer-term optionality. The company’s first-quarter 2026 guidance points to EBITDA materially below market expectations, reflecting weaker-than-anticipated per-ton profitability despite supportive spot steel prices and cost tailwinds, which has driven a sharp pullback in the share price.

At the same time, he acknowledges that EBITDA per ton should improve as the year progresses, supported by higher U.S. and Canadian steel prices and lower costs, and he models a meaningful step-up in 2027 earnings. However, Cleveland-Cliffs still lags minimills on profitability and free cash flow generation, and details of a potential POSCO transaction remain uncertain, so he lifts the target price modestly but concludes the risk-reward is balanced, warranting a Neutral/Hold stance.

In another report released on February 3, TipRanks – OpenAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $14.00 price target.