Chevron: Near-Term Earnings Headwinds Temper Upside Despite Oil Leverage and Capital Returns

TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman has maintained their neutral stance on CVX stock, giving a Hold rating on April 10.

Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Chevron’s recent guidance and operating backdrop. He sharply cut near‑term EPS expectations after management flagged sizable timing and working‑capital headwinds, though he expects much of this earnings pressure to reverse later in the year if commodity prices stabilize.

He also acknowledges Chevron’s strong leverage to higher oil prices and limited direct exposure to the Middle East, but notes that unplanned outages at major assets have constrained relative share performance versus peers. While planned increases in buybacks and equity‑affiliate distributions support capital returns, these moves are more measured than previously assumed, leading him to maintain a neutral stance and trim his price target to $204 rather than turn more positive on the stock.

In another report released on April 10, Barclays also assigned a Hold rating to the stock with a $180.00 price target.