Cautious Outlook on Moderna Amid mNEXSPIKE Approval and Market Challenges

Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn maintained a Hold rating on Moderna (MRNA – Research Report) today and set a price target of $31.00.

Terence Flynn has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors surrounding Moderna’s recent developments and future prospects. The FDA’s approval of Moderna’s next-generation COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, for specific age groups is seen as a positive step. However, the approval comes with several post-marketing requirements, including studies on myocarditis and other health outcomes, which could potentially increase costs for the company.
Additionally, while mNEXSPIKE has shown higher efficacy compared to the first-generation vaccine, SpikeVax, the commercial success of this new vaccine will depend on its execution in the market. The company anticipates having mNEXSPIKE available for the 2025-2026 season, but uncertainties around the size and cost of required trials, as well as the competitive landscape, contribute to the Hold rating. These factors suggest a cautious approach as the company navigates its future in the evolving vaccine market.

In another report released on May 27, Barclays also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $40.00 price target.