Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin Smith maintained a Sell rating on Enphase Energy (ENPH – Research Report) today and set a price target of $44.00.
Julien Dumoulin Smith has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors impacting Enphase Energy’s outlook. One of the primary concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its potential phase-out, which poses significant risks to the company’s growth prospects beyond 2025. The sentiment around the IRA has turned increasingly negative, raising doubts about the sustainability of Enphase’s expected growth, particularly after the anticipated safe harbor uplift.
Furthermore, the market seems to underestimate the potential impact of an accelerated IRA phase-out on the residential solar sector, which could lead to a substantial decline in growth. Despite a slightly improved market outlook for the near term, Julien Dumoulin Smith remains cautious about Enphase’s long-term growth, especially in its core microinverters business. This cautious stance is reflected in the lowered price target to $44, as the analyst’s estimates for Enphase’s EBITDA are significantly below market expectations for the period from 2026 to 2028.