In a report released yesterday, Tariq Saad from BMO Capital maintained a Hold rating on Cardinal Energy, with a price target of C$9.50.
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Tariq Saad has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to both Cardinal Energy’s operational performance and its valuation profile. The company is executing well, with Q4/25 cash flow roughly matching forecasts and the Reford 1 thermal project ramping up ahead of schedule, which has enabled the sanctioned expansion at Reford 2 supported by key contracts and design work already in place.
At the same time, Cardinal’s shares trade at a premium EV/EBITDA multiple and a lower free cash flow yield versus peers on 2027 estimates, even though its longer-term FCF is expected to strengthen once Reford 2 is fully onstream. While Cardinal benefits from low base declines, resilient conventional output, and an attractive dividend, Saad concludes that comparable companies in the sector currently provide more compelling value, justifying a Hold rather than a more bullish recommendation.
CJ’s price has also changed moderately for the past six months – from C$7.500 to C$10.440, which is a 39.20% increase.