Analyst Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Calumet Specialty Products, retaining the price target of $14.00.
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Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Calumet Specialty Products’ financial positioning and future prospects. The company has managed to align its core business with mid-cycle EBITDA expectations despite facing challenges such as a turnaround and logistical issues. Additionally, Calumet is strategically positioned to address its 2026 debt maturities, although achieving its target debt level is dependent on the monetization of Montana Renewables.
Furthermore, while the company anticipates generating modest free cash flow in the second half of 2025, there are concerns about potential negative impacts on sustainable aviation fuel earnings due to changes in the OBBB. The valuation of the stock is based on a balanced approach, considering both 2025 EBITDA and the net present value of EBITDA, similar to its biofuel peers. This results in a price target that reflects a cautious outlook, supporting the Hold rating.
In another report released on August 1, TR | OpenAI – 4o also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $16.00 price target.