Calumet: Improved Core Performance but SAF Market and Regulatory Uncertainty Justify Hold Rating

In a report released today, Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Calumet Specialty Products, with a price target of $25.00.

Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Calumet’s renewable fuels trajectory and market risks. While he acknowledges improved performance in the core operations and raises his EBITDA outlook and price target to $25, he remains cautious about fully reflecting the company’s ambitious sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) premium assumptions, given his view that the SAF market could become oversupplied and cap achievable pricing.

He also notes that although the MaxSAF project is progressing on schedule with startup expected in 2Q26 and contracted volumes at a premium to renewable diesel, the actual realized spreads and the impact of upcoming U.S. biofuel regulations will be critical to validating the investment case. Operational factors such as recent one‑time tax and credit monetization effects, along with planned downtime for the MaxSAF ramp‑up, add further uncertainty, leading him to see a balanced risk‑reward profile that supports maintaining a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating.

Gabelman covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Chevron, BP, and Exxon Mobil. According to TipRanks, Gabelman has an average return of 10.8% and a 64.58% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released on February 28, TipRanks – OpenAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $27.00 price target.