BP: Near-Term Trading Tailwinds but Medium-Term Commodity and Earnings Uncertainty Justify Hold

TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman maintained a Hold rating on BP p.l.c. today and set a price target of p570.00.

Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors including a modest near‑term earnings uplift but persistent medium‑term uncertainties. He raises his 1Q26 EPS estimate on the back of unusually strong oil and product trading and lower taxes, yet this is partly offset by weaker upstream realizations, higher costs and depreciation, and a sizeable working capital drag that is only expected to unwind over time.

Gabelman also sees potential upside from stronger commodities, price lags that support near‑term cash flow, and balance sheet improvement that could fund incremental project ownership and portfolio simplification under new leadership. However, he notes that BP’s shares have not fully benefited from higher crude prices, as investors remain wary of a sharp oil price correction if geopolitical risks ease, and his lower outer‑year EPS on softer futures prices leads him to maintain a neutral stance and trim his price target, justifying the Hold recommendation.

In another report released on April 14, Jefferies also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a £6.50 price target.