Balancing Solid 2025 Results Against Mounting 2026 Headwinds: Maintaining a Hold on Novo Nordisk

BMO Capital analyst Evan Seigerman maintained a Hold rating on Novo Nordisk yesterday and set a price target of $57.00.

Evan Seigerman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance Novo Nordisk’s solid recent performance with a more challenging outlook for 2026. While the company delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results on both revenue and earnings, management’s newly issued 2026 guidance points to a meaningful decline in reported revenue and operating profit once one-time 340B rebate reversals are excluded. Pricing pressure in the U.S. obesity market, driven by Trump-era MFN-related deals and additional concessions needed to preserve access, is expected to weigh heavily on growth even as early uptake of the Wegovy pill shows promise. These headwinds suggest that topline benefits from newer oral offerings will likely be offset by weaker pricing and margins in injectable GLP-1 products, limiting near-term upside in the shares.
At the same time, Seigerman believes Novo Nordisk’s competitive position in the broader cardiometabolic space will remain under strain relative to key rival Eli Lilly. He expects Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound to continue gaining incremental U.S. market share from Ozempic and Wegovy, while the potential entry of orforglipron introduces another meaningful competitive threat. In his view, the company’s 2025 and early 2026 catalysts are unlikely to be strong enough to reverse these share pressures or significantly re-rate the stock in the near term. Taken together, these dynamics support a neutral stance, leading him to maintain a Hold recommendation on NVO.

In another report released on January 26, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $68.00 price target.