Balancing Near-Term Macro Headwinds and Long-Term Initiatives: Justifying a Hold on MTY with a Lowered C$42 Target Price

TD Cowen analyst Derek Lessard has maintained their neutral stance on MTYFF stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Derek Lessard has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to MTY’s near‑term operating environment and valuation. He sees mounting macroeconomic pressures—especially higher fuel prices and weak consumer confidence—dampening same-store sales in Canada and the U.S., and squeezing profitability at corporate locations through 2026, while also noting that if the current strategic review does not lead to a sale, the share price could retreat toward the mid‑C$30 range.

At the same time, he acknowledges that MTY is executing on internal initiatives such as digital enhancements, loyalty expansion, and the ongoing turnaround at Papa Murphy’s, which should support earnings and free cash flow over the longer term. However, because these positives will take time to fully materialize and are being partially offset by rising costs and intense promotional competition, he has trimmed his 2026 EBITDA forecast, lowered his valuation multiple, and reduced his target price to C$42, all of which collectively justify maintaining a neutral Hold stance rather than moving to a Buy or Sell rating.

In another report released today, RBC Capital also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a C$46.00 price target.

MTYFF’s price has also changed moderately for the past six months – from C$34.350 to C$38.850, which is a 13.10% increase.