Balanced View on SoFi: Solid Execution and Growth Outlook Tempered by One-Time Benefits and Full Valuation Driving Hold Rating

TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch has maintained their neutral stance on SOFI stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Moshe Orenbuch has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to SoFi’s recent performance and future outlook. He acknowledges that the company delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, helped by strong loan platform (LPB) originations, improved margins, and supportive 2026 and medium-term guidance for revenue and EPS growth. However, he also notes that a portion of the quarter’s outperformance came from a one-time revenue item tied to a Galileo client termination, and without that benefit, earnings would have been closer to in-line or slightly below expectations, tempering the strength of the beat. The slight reduction in his price target and only modest upward revision to longer-term EPS estimates further signal a more balanced risk/reward profile at current levels.
At the same time, Orenbuch highlights constructive elements in SoFi’s story, including management’s track record of raising guidance, strong demand for its LPB offering, and the stability of partner contracts, which tend to be multi-year and can expand over time. He also points to the company’s medium-term targets of at least 30% annual revenue growth and high-30s to low-40s EPS growth through 2028 as supportive of continued earnings expansion. Additional upside from growing deposits and associated net interest income is recognized as a positive, but not enough to shift the rating higher given existing market expectations. Overall, these mixed signals—solid execution and promising growth opportunities, offset by reliance on some nonrecurring items and a fairly full valuation versus projected earnings—lead him to maintain a neutral Hold stance on the stock.

Orenbuch covers the Financial sector, focusing on stocks such as SLM, OneMain Holdings, and Capital One Financial. According to TipRanks, Orenbuch has an average return of 23.9% and a 69.46% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released today, Barclays also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $28.00 price target.