Balanced Risk-Reward Keeps GFL Environmental at Hold Following SECURE Waste Acquisition

In a report released yesterday, Adam Bubes from Goldman Sachs maintained a Hold rating on GFL Environmental, with a price target of $47.00.

Adam Bubes has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to GFL’s acquisition of SECURE Waste Infrastructure and its impact on valuation. The transaction adds a sizeable, higher‑margin industrial and energy waste platform, with SECURE’s projected 2026 EBITDA representing a meaningful share of GFL’s current earnings base and modestly lifting the company’s overall margin profile.

At the same time, the acquisition is being done at a valuation multiple below where GFL’s shares were recently trading, and is structured largely in stock, helping to keep leverage in the low‑ to mid‑3x range. However, given the already full trading multiple, the reliance on integration and synergy execution, and a significant ongoing M&A pipeline, Bubes views the risk‑reward as balanced rather than compelling, supporting a Hold stance.

In another report released today, Bank of America Securities also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $46.37 price target.