Balanced Risk-Reward: Hold Rating Maintained Amid Mixed Mineral Performance and Aftermarket Strength

In a report released today, David Farrell from Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on Metso Outotec, with a price target of €15.30.

David Farrell has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, including a slightly weaker than expected start to the year, where adjusted EBITA missed consensus by about 3% and cash flow from operations fell notably short, partly because of inventory build-up and delivery timing in Mineral Products. At the same time, order intake modestly exceeded expectations, though the upside was driven more by Aggregates than by Minerals, which may be less favourable from an investor preference standpoint.

Despite these soft spots, Farrell notes clear positives in the Mineral segment, where margins improved meaningfully year over year to 17.6%, even with an unfavorable revenue mix that saw only modest aftermarket growth versus stronger product sales. He also highlights solid aftermarket momentum, with higher service orders and robust activity in upgrades and modernizations, alongside an unchanged demand outlook for both Aggregates and Minerals, leading him to see a balanced risk‑reward that justifies maintaining a Hold stance rather than moving to a more decisive Buy or Sell rating.