Balanced Risk-Reward Amid Execution Progress and Long-Term LNG Growth Optionality

Analyst Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on NextDecade and increased the price target to $7.00 from $6.00.

Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, balancing improving execution with remaining uncertainties. He acknowledges that Phase 1 construction and Train 1 appear ahead of schedule, with first LNG expected in the first half of 2027 and potential upside from faster ramp and higher output. However, he also notes that management will not hedge additional volumes before startup, which leaves cash flow more exposed to commodity price volatility in the near term.

Gabelman also sees strategic value in the long-term growth optionality from Trains 4–10 and the company’s intention to keep high ownership in future phases, supported by favorable market dynamics that could help secure Train 6 in 2027. At the same time, he highlights that Train 6 still lacks contracted customers and that costs and financing for future trains carry meaningful uncertainty. As a result, while he raises his discounted cash flow–based price target to $7 on stronger 2027 price assumptions, he maintains a neutral stance, viewing risk and reward as broadly balanced at current levels.

In another report released on April 1, TipRanks – OpenAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $8.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 63 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of NEXT in relation to earlier this year.