Balanced But Uncompelling: Maintaining a Hold on Tinder Amid Gradual Turnaround and Ongoing MAU and Margin Uncertainties

In a report released today, Nathan Feather from Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Match Group, with a price target of $35.00.

Nathan Feather has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that reflect both encouraging metrics and unresolved uncertainties. Tinder’s fiscal 2026 revenue outlook landed roughly flat to modestly negative yet exceeded the pessimistic expectations heading into the quarter, and near-term revenue held up as user attrition proved less disruptive than feared. Management also showcased incremental traction from product initiatives—Sparks and new registrations are improving—which suggests the Tinder turnaround is slowly gaining credibility, while the 37.5% EBITDA margin target signals a disciplined balance between investment and profitability.
Nevertheless, overall Tinder MAUs remain in decline, Project Aurora has not provided an immediate catalyst, and the potential erosion of the $110 million direct payment benefit could pressure the margin story. Because the durability and timing of a meaningful MAU reacceleration are still murky, Feather reduced forward revenue and EBITDA estimates, trimmed the price target to $35, and maintained an equal-weight stance to reflect a risk-reward profile that feels balanced rather than compelling.

In another report released today, J.P. Morgan also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $31.00 price target.