Asymmetric Upside on Olema Ahead of Roche’s persevERA Readout: Buy/High Risk Maintained on Palazestrant Optionality

Analyst Yigal Nochomovitz from Citi maintained a Buy rating on Olema Pharmaceuticals and keeping the price target at $60.00.

Yigal Nochomovitz has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors, most notably his constructive view on Roche’s Phase 3 persevERA trial in first‑line breast cancer and its read‑through to Olema’s palazestrant program. He argues that, despite a widely perceived “coin‑toss” outcome, his analysis of trial design, preclinical data, and prior ESR1‑wild‑type results supports a meaningfully higher probability of success, with a scenario where a positive readout could plausibly drive a doubling of OLMA’s share price.

He also emphasizes that even in a scenario where persevERA yields only mixed or nominally negative results, the potential for palazestrant to be a superior molecule to Roche’s giredestrant—through higher tolerated dosing and more favorable pharmacokinetics—could keep Olema’s OPERA‑02 trial thesis intact. While he acknowledges a low‑probability, high‑downside case if the Roche study fails decisively with no efficacy signal, he views this as a small tail risk relative to the asymmetric upside and thus maintains a Buy/High Risk stance on the stock ahead of the 2026 catalyst window.

In another report released on February 11, Stifel Nicolaus also initiated coverage with a Buy rating on the stock with a $48.00 price target.