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ASML: Buy Rating Reaffirmed as China Export Risks Seen Offset by EUV Growth and Attractive 2027 Valuation

Analyst Didier Scemama of Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating on ASML Holding NV, boosting the price target to €1,598.00.

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Didier Scemama has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors related to both risk and long‑term opportunity. He acknowledges that the proposed MATCH Act could significantly restrict ASML’s immersion tool and service sales to China, and his scenario analysis shows that a full ban on ArFi tools and associated services would reduce 2027–2028 revenue and EBIT meaningfully, even after considering partial offsets from demand in other regions.

At the same time, he argues that these potential headwinds are already broadly reflected in ASML’s guidance and that capacity constraints and non‑China demand should cushion the impact. He maintains an unchanged €1,598 price objective and Buy rating, highlighting the company’s path to full EUV capacity by 2027, expected adoption of high‑NA EUV from 2028, and a valuation he sees as attractive versus peers based on ASML’s 2027 EBITDA multiple.

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