Antofagasta: Solid Delivery but Limited Upside Leaves Valuation Stretched, Justifying Sell Rating

Analyst Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley maintained a Sell rating on Antofagasta, with a price target of $3,050.00.

Ioannis Masvoulas has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors centered on valuation and limited earnings surprise. While Antofagasta’s FY25 EBITDA and adjusted EPS were essentially in line with his projections and only marginally ahead of consensus, these results do not, in his view, justify the company’s current market capitalization and share price. The modest beat in net debt, driven mainly by timing of cash taxes, is seen as temporary and expected to reverse as tax payments normalize by 2Q26.

The stronger-than-expected dividend, helped by a higher payout ratio, is acknowledged as a positive, but Masvoulas appears to regard it as already anticipated by sophisticated investors and not a catalyst for sustained re‑rating. With FY26 guidance for production, costs, and capex unchanged and key projects progressing largely as planned, he sees no major operational inflection on the horizon. As a result, he concludes that the upside from current levels is limited relative to the risks, underpinning his Sell stance on the stock.