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Analyst Maintains Hold on Meta as Slowing Growth Visibility and Rising AI-Driven Capex Pressure Long-Term EPS and Free Cash Flow

Analyst Maintains Hold on Meta as Slowing Growth Visibility and Rising AI-Driven Capex Pressure Long-Term EPS and Free Cash Flow

Oppenheimer analyst Jed Kelly reiterated a Hold rating on Meta Platforms yesterday and set a price target of $622.25.

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Jed Kelly has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Meta’s shifting growth and investment profile. While recent revenue and earnings modestly exceeded expectations, he sees momentum decelerating ahead as tougher comparisons, reduced precision in European advertising, and fewer granular engagement metrics point to slower, less visible growth.

At the same time, Meta is significantly ramping capital spending and operating costs to build out AI infrastructure and compete directly with leading foundation model platforms, pressuring free cash flow and forcing slight EPS cuts for 2026–2027. Given higher capex guidance, rising expense intensity, and what he views as limited upside to engagement-driven monetization in the near term, Kelly judges the current valuation—despite a seemingly reasonable forward multiple—as appropriately reflective of the risk–reward, supporting a neutral Hold stance rather than a more aggressive rating.

In another report released today, J.P. Morgan also downgraded the stock to a Hold with a $725.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 219 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of META in relation to earlier this year.

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