Analyst Maintains Hold on Improving Execution as Shares Trade Near Unchanged €27 Price Target

Analyst Alice Bergier Winograd of Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on Neste Corporation, retaining the price target of €27.00.

Alice Bergier Winograd has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, including a solid first-quarter earnings beat that was driven largely by the traditional refining and marketing business, with renewables also contributing via stronger-than-expected margins despite slightly softer volumes. At the same time, management kept full-year 2026 sales and capex guidance unchanged and reported net debt roughly in line with market expectations, suggesting no major change in the company’s medium-term financial trajectory.

Alice Bergier Winograd’s rating is based on the view that, while operational execution is improving and the performance enhancement program has already exceeded its initial savings target, key debates remain around the durability of higher biofuel margins, feedstock availability, and inventory dynamics over the rest of the year. With the stock trading close to her unchanged €27 price target, the current valuation appears to already reflect the recent outperformance, leading her to maintain a neutral stance rather than upgrade the shares.