American Express: Solid 2026 Growth Outlook but Full Valuation Keeps Rating at Hold

Analyst Keith Horowitz of Citi maintained a Hold rating on American Express, with a price target of $355.00.

Keith Horowitz has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to American Express’s growth outlook and current valuation. He expects the company to deliver another year of healthy top-line expansion in 2026, with revenue growth around the mid‑to‑high single digits, slightly ahead of market expectations but still modestly below management’s longer-term goal. The recent refresh of the Platinum product should support revenue, yet it also brings heightened scrutiny on spending levels as investors look to establish a new expense baseline for 2026. In particular, he anticipates expense growth to run somewhat higher than consensus, driven by both operating costs and a gradual rise in variable customer engagement (VCE) as a share of revenue.

At the same time, Horowitz sees the shares trading at a valuation that already embeds robust growth and strong normalized returns, leaving less room for upside in his view. His analysis suggests that the stock commands a premium when measured against his implied cost of equity framework, which makes the risk/reward less compelling relative to other opportunities in the sector. Market positioning indicators also show the name as a “two‑way debate,” underscoring how much of the positive fundamental story may already be reflected in the price. Taken together, these factors lead him to a neutral stance, preferring to wait for either a better entry point or clearer incremental positives before becoming more constructive.

In another report released on December 16, Barclays also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $355.00 price target.

AXP’s price has also changed moderately for the past six months – from $318.980 to $373.390, which is a 17.06% increase.