Alcoa’s Performance Challenges Lead to Continued Sell Rating Despite Q3’25 EBITDA Beat

Analyst Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities reiterated a Sell rating on Alcoa, boosting the price target to $28.00.

Lawson Winder has given his Sell rating due to a combination of factors impacting Alcoa’s performance. Despite Alcoa’s Q3’25 adjusted EBITDA surpassing expectations, driven by better performance in the Aluminum segment, challenges remain. The ongoing tariffs on Canadian shipments, ramp-up issues at San Ciprián, and poor bauxite quality in the Alumina segment are significant concerns.
Furthermore, while Alcoa’s future production of gallium is a noteworthy development, it is still in its early stages and not enough to offset the broader challenges. The Alumina market is under pressure due to increased supply from China and Indonesia, and issues at the Mozal smelter present additional risks. Although there is resilient demand for aluminum in North America and Europe, these factors contribute to the cautious outlook and the decision to maintain a Sell rating.