Affirm: Strong Quarterly Beat, Conservative Guidance, and Growth Optionality Support Buy Rating and $95 Target

In a report released today, Moshe Orenbuch from TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Affirm Holdings, with a price target of $95.00.

Moshe Orenbuch has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Affirm’s strong quarterly execution and attractive forward outlook. The company’s second-quarter results significantly exceeded his expectations on earnings, revenue, and key profitability metrics, driven by robust growth in gross merchandise volume and better-than-anticipated revenue across merchant fees, interest income, and gain on sale. While transaction costs rose, this was attributed to higher volumes rather than credit deterioration, leading to stronger revenue less transaction costs and better margins than he had modeled. He also highlights that operating income came in well ahead of his forecast, supported by a favorable capital markets environment for Affirm’s asset sales.

Moshe Orenbuch’s rating is based on his view that management’s guidance and commentary support sustained high growth with resilient unit economics. Forward GMV expectations align with his projections, and although the revenue outlook is slightly softer at the midpoint, he believes Affirm’s historically conservative guidance and stable take rates make his estimates achievable. He also expects the company to benefit from a lower interest-rate backdrop and sees additional upside from the scaling of the Affirm card and early progress in the U.K. market. The successful 0% promotional campaign, largely funded by merchants, further supports his confidence that Affirm can use such initiatives to drive profitable, interest-bearing business. Reflecting these factors, he modestly raised his longer-term earnings estimates and set a $95 price target based on a PEG framework applied to his 2026 EPS forecast, supporting his Buy recommendation.

In another report released on February 4, TipRanks – Google also reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $68.00 price target.