Affirm Holdings: Navigating FY26 Outlook Amid Walmart Exclusivity Loss and Growth Drivers

Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette maintained a Hold rating on Affirm Holdings today and set a price target of $70.00.

James Faucette has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors impacting Affirm Holdings. One of the primary considerations is the company’s FY26 outlook, which is a significant point of discussion among investors, particularly concerning the potential headwind from the loss of exclusivity with Walmart. This exclusivity loss could affect Affirm’s GMV and AOI, but the company still has several underappreciated growth drivers that could sustain its robust growth trajectory.
Additionally, while Affirm’s recent GMV growth has been strong, the future performance will heavily depend on how the company navigates these challenges and formulates its FY26 outlook. Investors are debating whether the Walmart headwind will be fully accounted for in the outlook, and an in-line forecast with consensus might suffice for share stability. Furthermore, despite potential competition from Synchrony on Amazon, Affirm’s credit performance remains solid, which supports the Hold rating amidst these uncertainties.

In another report released on August 21, RBC Capital also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $75.00 price target.