Adaptive Biotechnologies: Sustained MRD Growth, Pricing Power, and Strategic Positioning Support Buy Rating and Premium Valuation

In a report released yesterday, Mark Massaro from BTIG reiterated a Buy rating on Adaptive Biotechnologies, with a price target of $22.00.

Mark Massaro has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that highlight Adaptive Biotechnologies’ strong operational and financial momentum. He points to the company’s exceptional revenue and volume growth in its core MRD and clonoSEQ businesses, which consistently exceeded both his and the Street’s forecasts, alongside solid gross margins and a sizable cash position that supports continued execution. He also emphasizes the company’s 2026 guidance, which calls for robust MRD revenue growth and further expansion in clonoSEQ testing volumes and pricing, and he views the assumed decline in milestone payments as a deliberately cautious element rather than a sign of weakening fundamentals. Importantly, he notes that management’s outlook and his own analysis suggest that potential competitive entries later this year are unlikely to materially disrupt the company’s growth trajectory.

Massaro further underscores the structural drivers behind the story, including rising average selling prices driven by better reimbursement dynamics, successful renegotiations with major commercial payers, and the gap between current pricing and higher Medicare rates, which leaves room for continued ASP expansion over several years. He highlights the growing integration of Adaptive’s testing into electronic medical record systems such as Epic and OncoEMR, which is already handling a substantial share of volume and should support sustained adoption by clinicians. The analyst also cites a strong and expanding MRD biopharma backlog, growing use of clonoSEQ as a trial endpoint across multiple hematologic malignancies, and increasing inclusion of MRD in clinical and regulatory discussions as reinforcing the long-term demand outlook. On valuation, he justifies his $22 price target by applying a premium revenue multiple to his 2027 estimates and discounting back, reflecting his conviction that Adaptive remains one of the leading growth platforms in specialty diagnostics.

According to TipRanks, Massaro is an analyst with an average return of -2.4% and a 35.10% success rate. Massaro covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as GeneDx Holdings, BillionToOne, Inc. Class A, and Zoetis.

In another report released today, TD Cowen also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $21.00 price target.