Adaptive Biotechnologies: Strong MRD Momentum, Enhanced 2026 Outlook, and Clear Path to Profitability Support Buy Rating

Daniel Brennan, an analyst from TD Cowen, maintained the Buy rating on Adaptive Biotechnologies. The associated price target was raised to $21.00.

Daniel Brennan has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that underscore Adaptive Biotechnologies’ strong operating momentum and visibility into future growth. He highlights that the company’s fourth-quarter performance significantly exceeded expectations, particularly in ClonoSEQ testing volumes and revenue growth, alongside better-than-anticipated margins and EBITDA. Brennan also emphasizes management’s confidence that key growth drivers—such as broader electronic medical record integration, expansion into blood-based testing, increased adoption in community settings, additional clinical indications, and greater pharma and guideline support—are firmly in place and should continue to drive robust demand.
In addition, Brennan notes that the 2026 MRD revenue outlook is meaningfully above both his and the Street’s prior forecasts, supported by stronger anticipated volume growth and higher milestone revenue from pharma partnerships. He points out that underlying MRD pharma revenue (excluding milestones) is expected to grow at a solid double-digit rate, with milestone contributions also topping earlier guidance. ClonoSEQ volumes are projected to grow by more than 30% in 2026 with stable pricing, and the company is guiding to gross margins above 70% while keeping operating expenses in line with prior expectations. Finally, Brennan views the reiterated path to positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by the end of 2026, combined with the raised price target to $21, as reinforcing the stock’s favorable risk/reward profile and supporting his Buy recommendation.

According to TipRanks, Brennan is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 22.5% and a 57.21% success rate. Brennan covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Natera, Exact Sciences, and Qiagen.

In another report released on January 26, Guggenheim also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $21.00 price target.