The U.S. labor market staged a significant recovery in March, adding 178,000 jobs compared to February’s loss of 133,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That marked the most monthly additions since December 2024. Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, registering its lowest level since August 2025.
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New trading tool for QQQ bullsAt the same time, a stronger labor market means the Fed is less incentivized to cut interest rates and support job growth.
Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady in 2026
The central bank will meet for its next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on April 29, where it is expected, with 99.5% odds, to hold rates steady, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, the odds of a 25 bps rate cut by year-end fell to 11.5% from 21.6% a day ago, while the odds of a 25 bps rate hike rose to 8.7% from 0.2%. At 79.2%, holding rates steady remains the most likely outcome for the Fed.