One of the big names in chips is facing a reality check as a major bank pulls back its support. On Thursday, JPMorgan (JPM) analyst Samik Chatterjee downgraded Qualcomm (QCOM) from “Overweight” to “Neutral” and chopped the price target from $185 down to $140. The bank also placed the company on its “negative catalyst watch,” signaling that things could get worse before they get better.
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While the company has big plans to move beyond phones and into servers, the road is getting crowded with powerful rivals.
Analyst Samik Chatterjee said the firm needs to see “more execution proof points before maintaining confidence in Qualcomm’s datacenter opportunity.” He noted that recent announcements from Arm (ARM) and Nvidia (NVDA) regarding new CPUs and AI chips are “increasing competitive pressure” on the business.
Because these giants are moving so fast, Chatterjee believes it will require “more time for Qualcomm to demonstrate progress” in this vital new market. For the stock to start rising again, the company must show that its new server chips can actually win over big cloud customers.
Smartphone Slump Drags Down QCOM’s Revenue Forecasts
The primary engine of the company, selling chips for high-end phones, is starting to lose steam as people wait longer to upgrade their devices.
JPMorgan now expects a “low double-digit decline in Qualcomm’s smartphone shipments in 2026,” a headwind that the firm believes is not yet fully priced into the stock. Chatterjee specifically highlighted “increased competitive intensity” and a “slow diversification progress” as major risks.
JPMorgan is projecting a 22% drop in handset revenue for the year, which is a much sharper decline than what other analysts are predicting. Without a clear sign of recovery in the phone market, the bank sees a “lack of near-term catalysts for the stock to re-rate” higher.
Qualcomm’s Competitive Risks Rise as Contracts Shift
The company is also dealing with the long-term threat of losing one of its biggest customers, which is creating a lot of uncertainty for investors.
The firm lowered its price target based on updated earnings estimates, using a “13x target price-to-earnings multiple,” down from its previous 16x. Chatterjee noted that the market is increasingly worried about “headwinds from Apple and Samsung” as they look to build more of their own components. While the stock currently offers a 3.90% upside at its new target, JPMorgan remains cautious until the company can prove it is truly a player in the AI data center world.
Is Qualcomm a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to TipRanks, Qualcomm has a Hold consensus rating among Wall Street analysts as of April 2026. This rating is based on eight Buys, 16 Holds, and three Sell ratings issued within the last three months. The average 12-month QCOM stock price target is $154.56, pointing to a 14.5% upside from the current price.
