Tariff Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints Shape Global Freight Environment

A LinkedIn post from Flexport highlights recent legal and market developments affecting global trade flows and freight pricing. According to the post, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has temporarily stayed the Court of International Trade’s ruling against the 10% Section 122 tariff, allowing U.S. Customs and Border Protection to continue collecting the duty.

The post suggests the appeal process could take months and notes the Section 122 tariff is currently set to expire in July 2026, which may reduce pressure for expedited review. However, it indicates that if the original CIT ruling is ultimately upheld, potential refunds would likely be processed through existing CBP mechanisms, creating a possible future cash-flow event for importers.

Flexport’s post also points to ongoing progress on IEEPA duty refunds via the CAPE system, with millions of entries accepted and a substantial subset already liquidated or reliquidated without IEEPA duties. Only part of these processed entries has reached the U.S. Treasury for payment so far, implying that refund disbursements may continue over an extended period, which could affect working capital for impacted shippers.

On the operational side, the post describes constrained capacity on the Trans-Pacific Eastbound lane, with deployed capacity at about 78% of usual levels, alongside congestion at key European ocean hubs tied to slow cargo evacuation, low Rhine water levels, scheduling gaps, and pilot strikes. Elevated vessel utilization on the Trans-Atlantic Westbound lane, combined with blank sailings, points to tight supply that could sustain higher spot and contract rates.

For air freight, the post notes generally stable or softening demand on most ex-Asia routes following recent holidays, but ongoing space challenges and volatility on some South Asia lanes. For investors, these dynamics suggest a mixed environment in which logistics intermediaries with strong capacity management, customs expertise, and visibility solutions—such as Flexport—may benefit from sustained demand for advisory and execution services amid regulatory uncertainty and uneven modal capacity.

The post indirectly underscores that future tariff and refund outcomes could shift landed costs for importers and influence routing decisions, potentially driving volume shifts across ocean and air corridors. Continued congestion and selective capacity constraints may support pricing power for carriers and integrated forwarders, while extended refund timelines and policy ambiguity could encourage shippers to prioritize partners that provide granular regulatory tracking and cash-flow impact analysis.