According to a recent LinkedIn post from Climate X, new research from Istanbul University’s Institute of Marine Sciences and Management models long-term sea-level rise risks for Istanbul’s Black Sea and Marmara coastlines out to 2300. The study uses IPCC-aligned, GIS-based hydrodynamic modelling and focuses on exposure of ports, rail, highways, and coastal real estate.
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The post highlights that by 2050, a projected 1.5-metre sea-level rise could disrupt nearly 70% of Istanbul’s port infrastructure, suggesting that material risk emerges well before the end of the century. By 2100, around five metres of sea-level rise could expose nearly all port systems, more than 60% of rail corridors, about 40% of coastal highways, and over 10,000 structures to high flood risk.
Longer-term scenarios in the modelling point to potential sea-level rise of up to 15 metres by 2300, which would significantly reduce usability of existing port assets and permanently reshape coastal regions. The post underscores that testing such extreme pathways is important, as threshold effects in coastal systems may create irreversible changes in logistics capacity and land use.
According to the LinkedIn commentary, risk appears concentrated in key logistics hubs such as Ambarlı, Haydarpaşa, and Yenikapı along the Bosporus corridor. Flood risk across these hubs could affect between 247,000 and 1.73 million square metres of operational land, implying potential disruption to regional and international supply chains that depend on these nodes.
For investors, the post suggests that ports, terminals, and logistics real estate should be treated as fixed, long-duration assets whose viability is sensitive to climate thresholds rather than gradual averages. The analysis argues that portfolio-level risk measures may be insufficient and that forward-looking, asset-level climate scenarios will become increasingly important for investment, lending, and infrastructure planning decisions.