According to a recent LinkedIn post from Polymarket, prediction markets on the platform are tracking the anticipated release of Chinese AI lab DeepSeek’s V4 large language model next week. The post notes that traders currently assign DeepSeek a 17% probability of having the top AI model by June 30, with xAI leading at 40%.
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The post highlights that V4 is expected to be a multimodal model capable of generating text, images, and video, with the timing coinciding with China’s “Two Sessions” political meetings. It also points to DeepSeek’s prior R1 model, which the post says contributed to volatility in U.S. tech stocks last year, framing the upcoming launch as another potential competitive milestone in the global AI race.
According to the post, DeepSeek has collaborated with Chinese chipmakers Huawei and Cambricon to optimize V4 for their hardware, reinforcing a broader push to lessen dependence on Nvidia amid U.S. export controls. The post suggests this could support demand for Chinese semiconductors, particularly for inference workloads, even as Nvidia reportedly remains dominant in compute-intensive pre-training.
The LinkedIn post also references recent allegations from Anthropic that DeepSeek and other Chinese labs engaged in “distillation attacks,” underscoring rising geopolitical and IP-related frictions in AI development. For investors, the activity on Polymarket may serve as a sentiment indicator on perceived winners in the AI and chip ecosystems, with implications for both U.S. and Chinese technology and semiconductor equities.
The mention that DeepSeek will release only a brief technical note initially, with a fuller report later, contrasts with the more detailed disclosure accompanying its R1 launch. If perceived as a step toward less transparency, this could influence how institutional investors assess technological differentiation and risk, while the evolving market probabilities on Polymarket may provide a real-time gauge of shifting expectations around AI leadership.