Prediction Market Activity Highlights Shifting IPO Sentiment Between Anthropic and OpenAI

According to a recent LinkedIn post from Polymarket, prediction market traders are currently assigning higher odds that Anthropic will list its shares before OpenAI. The post cites a reported surge in Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue from about $9 billion to more than $30 billion in three months, alongside an expansion to over 1,000 customers each spending more than $1 million annually.

The LinkedIn post also references Anthropic’s partnership with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next‑generation TPU capacity expected from 2027, which is presented as an indication of long‑term infrastructure planning and confidence in demand. For investors, these claims, if accurate, could imply a stronger revenue trajectory and ecosystem positioning for Anthropic within the AI infrastructure value chain.

On Polymarket’s platform, the probability that Anthropic will IPO before OpenAI is described at around 66%, reflecting a market‑implied view that Anthropic may be closer to public‑market readiness. The post further notes that Anthropic recently closed a Series G round at a reported $380 billion post‑money valuation, with some market participants allegedly speculating about an eventual IPO valuation approaching $1 trillion.

In contrast, the LinkedIn post portrays OpenAI as facing near‑term headwinds, referencing comments attributed to its CFO about large server commitments, substantial projected cash burn before breakeven, and decelerating revenue growth. If these dynamics persist, public‑market investors may scrutinize OpenAI’s capital intensity and profitability path more closely relative to Anthropic’s reported growth profile.

For Polymarket itself, the post underscores its role as a venue for trading sentiment on high‑profile private‑company outcomes, including the sequencing and perceived attractiveness of potential AI IPOs. Growing engagement with such markets could enhance Polymarket’s user activity and brand visibility among investors who monitor prediction markets as an additional sentiment indicator on major technology and capital‑markets events.