Over $529 million was wagered on Polymarket predicting a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, marking the platform’s largest-ever conflict-related market. This move, however, is prompting scrutiny and allegations of possible insider trading, as a handful of newly created cryptocurrency wallets profited just hours before the attacks in Tehran.
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Polymarket Records Massive Bets on U.S.–Iran Strike Contract
Tensions escalated in late Jan. 2026 after Iranian missile tests prompted expanded U.S. naval deployments to the Gulf. Against this backdrop, Polymarket activity spiked, particularly on its “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28” contract, which drew roughly $90 million in trading volume. Implied odds on the strike surged from 31% to 60% as diplomatic rhetoric intensified. When the airstrikes occurred, the market resolved “Yes,” triggering large payouts.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six wallets created in February that focused almost exclusively on this “strike-timing” question. Each generated roughly $1 million in profits after accumulating large “Yes” positions at lower prices. Some shares were purchased for as little as $0.10 apiece just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
One wallet placed an initial losing bet earlier, then wagered $26,513 on Feb. 28 and earned a profit exceeding $174,000. Another wallet acquired approximately 560,000 “Yes” shares at around 10.8 cents, turning about $60,800 into nearly $560,000. The accounts had no prior trading history and closed their positions immediately after settlement, intensifying speculation that the traders may have had insider knowledge of the operation’s timing.
Iran-Related Polymarket Bets Draw Regulatory Scrutiny
The Feb. 28 strike market was one of several Iran-focused contracts attracting attention. Traders also placed over $150 million on the potential removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by June and more than $100 million on the Strait of Hormuz closure. Polymarket is now facing criticism for hosting markets tied to military action, raising concerns about ethics and insider trading.
While some analysts argue that these bets merely reflect broader speculation, Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the circulation of information “involving war or conflict,” coupled with Polymarket’s anonymity, “can create incentives for informed participants to act early.” Meanwhile, U.S. senators, including Chris Murphy, called the situation “insane” and signaled plans to pursue legislation banning war-related prediction markets.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also stepped up scrutiny of offshore prediction platforms, focusing on insider-trading risks revealed through blockchain analytics. Polymarket fired back, defending conflict betting as “invaluable” insights that can outpace traditional intelligence, while emphasizing that its blockchain transparency deters manipulation.
Can Anyone Buy on Polymarket?
According to TipRanks private company center, Polymarket is classified as a privately held firm, meaning only accredited investors are eligible to trade its shares.
