Polymarket Highlights Market-Implied Odds and Valuation Signals Around Anthropic IPO

According to a recent LinkedIn post from Polymarket, prediction market data on its platform is implying a 68% probability that Anthropic will complete an initial public offering before OpenAI. The post centers on a reported $30 billion funding round for Anthropic at a $350 billion pre-money valuation, described as heavily oversubscribed and aimed at expansion of data centers and infrastructure ahead of a potential IPO as early as this year.

The LinkedIn post highlights that Anthropic, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, is portrayed as heavily focused on enterprise AI, with about 80% of an indicated $14 billion revenue run rate attributed to business customers. It also notes reported traction for the Claude Code product, described as a primary coding platform for software engineers, with over 500 customers allegedly spending more than $1 million annually and subscriptions said to have quadrupled since early 2025.

According to the post, the reported capital raise is expected to support continued enterprise product development, hiring and retention of researchers, securing chip supply, and infrastructure build-out, with Anthropic characterized as more conservative in spend than OpenAI, which is described as having significantly larger compute commitments. If accurate, these funding and revenue figures could imply a rapidly scaling enterprise AI leader, with implications for valuation benchmarks and competitive dynamics across the broader AI ecosystem.

The Polymarket probability on Anthropic’s IPO timing, while not a forecast, offers investors a real-time sentiment gauge on which AI firm may reach public markets first, potentially influencing expectations around capital flows and exit timelines. The post also points to overlapping investors across Anthropic and OpenAI, including Sequoia Capital, Founders Fund, Nvidia, and Microsoft, underscoring concentrated exposure for late-stage backers and the possibility of correlated outcomes across the leading private AI platforms.