Grid Status is emerging as a key independent analytics provider as North American power markets undergo structural change, and this weekly recap highlights its latest data-driven insights. The company’s recent work spans record renewable curtailment in California, diverging solar trends in major U.S. markets, and evolving congestion patterns in Canada.
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In California, Grid Status reported record-shattering wind and solar curtailment on the CAISO grid in April, following relatively low levels in January. Curtailments peaked in the late afternoon while remaining low overnight, underscoring integration challenges during periods of high renewable supply and limited demand.
The firm indicated it will publish further analysis on CAISO, emphasizing the growing value of granular curtailment data for investors and asset owners. Such insights can help market participants manage congestion risk, price volatility, and resource optimization as renewable penetration rises.
Grid Status also highlighted a sharp divergence in solar generation growth between MISO and PJM over the past three years. While PJM’s peak solar output has roughly tripled since early 2023, MISO’s has increased more than sixfold, aided by stronger state-level incentives and fewer interconnection bottlenecks.
On a comparable April day three years ago, solar provided less than 3% of MISO’s fuel mix, but it can now become the largest single source during peak hours. This rapid shift underscores regional differences shaping capital allocation, infrastructure planning, and policy-driven investment decisions.
The company broadened its coverage to Ontario, where it analyzed the Independent Electricity System Operator’s shift to a nodal market with locational marginal pricing and virtual trading. Grid Status noted that congestion patterns largely matched expectations, with southern load centers and remote generation hubs driving price divergence.
Ottawa has benefited from strong export flows to Hydro-Québec via the Outaouais DC tie, while Northwest Ontario has faced downside due to limited load and hydro-heavy capacity linked to Manitoba and Minnesota. These findings reinforce the importance of locational data for traders, utilities, and asset owners.
In ERCOT, Grid Status flagged a widening gap between the system operator’s 2030 base-case peak demand forecast of about 107 GW and TSP-inclusive projections nearing 320 GW. This discrepancy, driven by procedural changes pulling earlier-stage requests into planning, complicates long-term investment decisions for generators and transmission developers.
Beyond Texas, the firm pointed to a new all-time wind generation record above 7 GW in CAISO, likely supported by flows from the 3.2 GW SunZia project via a 525 kV HVDC line. The additional supply is expected to pressure wholesale prices in windy periods and reduce off-peak gas-fired generation.
Grid Status also observed rising price volatility in PJM’s Dominion zone amid record heat along the I-95 corridor and elevated outages, including at a Surry nuclear unit. With peak loads above 20 GW and constrained local capacity, the region is increasingly reliant on net imports, amplifying congestion and price spikes.
Taken together, these insights demonstrate Grid Status’s expanding role as a provider of granular congestion, curtailment, and demand-forecast analytics across North America. The week’s developments suggest the company is well positioned to benefit from growing demand for high-resolution grid data and market intelligence services.