Global Freight Market Faces Tariff Risk, Capacity Tightening, and Route Volatility

According to a recent LinkedIn post from Flexport, the company is tracking several regulatory and capacity developments across global freight markets. The post references U.S. Customs and Border Protection expectations for issuing initial IEEPA duty refunds around May 11, 2026, noting that roughly 21% of entries have been accepted for duty removal and about 3% have reached the refund stage.

The same post highlights political risk around a potential tariff increase on EU cars and trucks, with President Trump reportedly signaling a move from 15% to 25% without a clear timeline or scope for parts versus finished vehicles. This suggests added uncertainty for transatlantic auto supply chains and could influence trade flows, cost structures, and margin planning for import-dependent sectors.

On ocean freight, the LinkedIn post points to an anticipated tightening of space on Trans-Pacific Eastbound routes, driven by May holiday demand and blank sailings in Weeks 20 and 21. It also describes early signs of selective Suez Canal re-engagement on Far East–Westbound routes, while Cape of Good Hope routings remain prevalent, alongside ongoing congestion at major Northern European ports.

For air cargo, the post notes a post-holiday demand cooldown on some ex-China lanes, contrasted with continued capacity constraints and rate volatility from Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. For investors, these observations indicate a mixed but active pricing and capacity environment that could support freight rate resilience, while underscoring operational risk and volatility across both ocean and air networks.