The S&P 500 (SPX) has risen by 3.3% during the past month, fueled by encouraging inflation, retail sales, and jobs data.
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However, Barclays notes that the “holiday data gifts may not last into 2026,” as recent positive data may have been distorted by the government shutdown. For example, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% annually in November, although the firm notes that CPI data collection only began midway through the month and that goods were discounted due to the Black Friday shopping event.
Shutdown and Holiday Season Skew Economic Data
In addition, jobs data is often volatile during holiday periods, while many government employees accepted deferred resignation offers earlier in the year and exited payrolls in October.
As a result, Barclays says that upcoming data in January will provide a “fuller picture of the US economy” as it sheds the lingering effects of the shutdown. The metrics will guide the Fed in shaping monetary policy when it meets on January 28.
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