Crypto bettors are growing more skeptical about the odds that Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will win his ongoing legal battle with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. On the prediction platform Polymarket, contracts show only a 37% probability of a Musk victory, down more than 24% from the previous 87% projected loss.
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New trading tool for NVDA bearsThe lawsuit, set for trial on April 28 in a California federal court, centers on Musk’s claim that OpenAI abandoned its founding principles. The SpaceX and xAI founder recently stated that any financial gains from a successful case would be donated, emphasizing that he does not intend to profit personally.
Legal Dispute Continues Over OpenAI’s Direction
Polymarket data show that a larger percentage of bettors believe Musk will lose his case against OpenAI, while 63% predict that Altman will win. The conflict traces back to OpenAI’s early days in 2015, when Musk was among its founding backers and contributed about $38 million to the project.
The SpaceX CEO argued that OpenAI, at the time, was created to be a nonprofit focused on developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) for public benefit. He stated that the company later deviated from that mission by forming commercial partnerships, including a high-profile alliance with Microsoft (MSFT).
OpenAI disputes that narrative. The company maintains that Musk was aware of, and agreed to, the shift toward a “for-profit structure” as early as 2017. It also claimed that Musk exited after disagreements over control and later encouraged the firm to secure large-scale funding independently.
Damages Debate Takes Center Stage
In its legal battle with OpenAI, Musk has demanded legal damages estimated between $79 billion and $134 billion. He publicly revealed that if he wins the case, he will distribute all the proceeds to charity.
During the pre-trial period, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers expressed doubts about the reason behind the higher fine, suggesting that it lacked sufficient evidence to support it. Despite her hesitation, the judge did not exclude the testimony of Musk’s expert witness, leaving it to the jury to assess its credibility.
The trial follows a separate legal dispute involving xAI that was dismissed earlier this year, highlighting the continued tensions between Musk and Altman.
What are the Best AI Stocks to Buy Now?
While Polymarket and OpenAI are still private companies ahead of potential IPOs, investors interested in AI stocks can consider top players such as Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and Alphabet Class A (GOOGL), which analysts rate a Strong Buy on TipRanks’ Stocks Comparison Center.
