PayPal Holdings (PYPL), the U.S.-based payments firm, is set to report its Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, May 5. The release follows recent earnings misses, slower growth in its core business, and a leadership change that pushed the PYPL stock down about 20% in February. Now, investors are watching to see if the upcoming earnings can trigger a recovery for the company and stock under its new CEO, Enrique Lores.
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PayPal’s Next Earnings Report Puts New CEO to the Test
Wall Street is not setting a high bar for PayPal’s next quarter results. Analysts forecast Earnings Per Share (EPS) at $1.27, a 4.5% drop from the same period last year. According to its SEC filing, PayPal had already warned of an extra mid-single-digit EPS drop this quarter, prompting analysts to cut estimates further by 2.2%.
Yet Lores has moved quickly to reset the business ahead of the report. Just days before the earnings news, he unveiled a full restructure of PayPal into three units: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto.
The shift is aimed at speeding up growth, making decisions easier, and improving accountability. Lores has also hired new talent to join PayPal. He created a new Chief AI Officer role, filled by Anshu Bhardwaj, and appointed Antonio Lucio, from consumer electronics firm HP Inc. (HPQ), as Chief Marketing Officer.
Overall, the upcoming Q1 report will show whether Lores’ early moves can steady growth and restore investors’ trust in PayPal’s outlook. It also has a high chance of influencing the stock’s price positively or negatively.
PayPal Shows Strength in Key Business Segments
Despite the EPS pressure, analysts still expect PayPal to post modest results in Q1. The firm received a revenue forecast of $8.12 billion, up 4.2% year over year, a sign that transaction volume across its platform remains steady.
This data also holds up based on recent trends. In Q4 2025, PayPal’s total payment volume grew 9% year over year to $475.1 billion, beating estimates. Venmo, the company’s peer-to-peer payments app, was a key driver in this growth. It posted a 20% revenue surge, reaching $1.7 billion and marking its strongest run in years.
Meanwhile, volume in PayPal’s Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) segment also grew double digits. Together, these figures suggest that while profitability remains under pressure, demand for the company’s payment system is still strong.
Analysts Share Mixed Bearish Projections For PYPL Stock
As the market maintains caution ahead of PayPal’s Q1 2026 earnings release, analysts offer mixed expectations for the stock’s performance. Adam Frisch, an analyst at Evercore ISI (EVR), reiterated his Hold rating on April 20 and predicted that PYPL could decline by 21% to $40. Dan Dolev at Mizuho Securities (MFG) also maintains a Hold rating on PYPL and expects it to continue trading around $50.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst James Faucette has repeated his Sell rating, projecting a much larger downside of 32.85%, implying a drop to $34 from its current price around $50.
Is PayPal Stock a Buy or Hold?
PayPal stock currently carries a Hold consensus rating based on data from TipRanks, which tracks analyst recommendations over the past three months. Out of 30 analysts, 4 rate the stock a Buy, 23 assign a Hold, and 3 suggest a Sell. The average price target is $48.78, implying a downside of about 3.65% from current levels.
