PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is set to release its first-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Tuesday, May 5, with an earnings call scheduled for later that morning. Analysts, however, have grown more cautious ahead of the report. Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch has reiterated his 22% crash forecast for PYPL on April 4, one day before the earnings release. This bearish sentiment comes after PayPal has fallen short of Wall Street’s expectations several times over the past two years. The firm’s revenue estimates have also been revised downward in most cases over the past 30 days.
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What PayPal Investors Need to Know Ahead of Earnings
According to TipRanks data, analysts expect PayPal to report Q1 earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $1.20 to $1.31. Revenue for the quarter is projected to average $8.05 billion, with estimates ranging from $7.80 billion to $8.36 billion.
This outlook sits below PayPal’s Q4 2025 revenue of $8.68 billion, which missed expectations of $8.78–$8.79 billion. As of May 4, Zacks Investment Research updated its Q1 2026 forecast for PayPal.
However, the firm also projects a lower EPS target of $1.27, a 4.51% year-over-year decrease. That revision follows PayPal’s Q4 2025 earnings miss, where EPS came in 4.65% below the previous estimate of $1.29.
Analysts Reiterate 20% PYPL Price Decline
PayPal’s new deals and price rally in the stock over the past three months have not significantly shifted analysts’ bearish sentiment. Evercore’s Frisch reiterates his $40 price target for the stock, despite PYPL recording a more than 22.9% in the past three months and currently trading at around $50.
JPMorgan analyst James Faucette has also issued a major downside forecast for PYPL, even more than Evercore’s. Faucette has maintained his $32.59% crasg forecast for PYPL, expecting the stock to tumble even lower to $38. The upcoming earnings have also not shifted sentiment to positive territory as experts remain extremely cautious.
Market Peers Post Strong Growth
PayPal’s earnings report will be closely watched for signs of a recovery in growth under its new CEO, Enrique Lores. Besides, its peers have already posted strong Q1 results. Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) reported 10.5% revenue growth and beat estimates by 4.3% while WEX (WEX) also saw 5.8% revenue gain, in line with forecasts.
Meanwhile, sentiment in the financial services sector has also been positive. PYPL shares are up 22.9% in the past three months, in line with an 8.8% average sector yield. TipRanks’ rating also shows that over the last calendar year, it performed in line with its industry on both earnings and sales.
Looking ahead, the market expects PayPal’s revenue to rise 3.3% year over year, up from the 1.2% growth recorded in Q1 2025. In addition, analysts forecast about $5.00 EPS for the current fiscal year and approximately $6.00 EPS for the next.
Is PayPal a Good Stock to Buy in 2026?
As of May 2026, TipRanks data shows that PayPal stock currently carries a Hold rating from 30 analysts who have reviewed it in the past 3 months. Of these analysts, only 4 rate the stock a Buy, 3 suggest a Sell, while 23 recommend a Hold. Meanwhile, PYPL’s average price target is $48, implying about a 3.83% downside from its current price. Moreover, the firm’s guidance points to a decline in EPS this year, in line with recent cuts to analyst estimates.
