Nebius Group (NBIS) has surged sharply in recent weeks, but one analyst now believes the rally may have run ahead of itself. After climbing about 70% since early February, Freedom Capital Markets analyst Paul Meeks downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. At the same time, he raised the price target to $154 from $108, pointing to stronger long-term expectations.
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Trade NBIS with leverageStock Rally Drives Downgrade Despite Strong Outlook
The downgrade is less about the business and more about the stock’s recent move. As Meeks explains, Nebius shares have risen much faster than expected, moving from around $85 to nearly $145 in just over two months. That sharp rally has pushed the stock into what he sees as overbought territory, with valuation now looking stretched in the near term.
Still, the underlying story remains intact. In fact, the firm has raised its revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, and now expects a sharp acceleration next year. Revenues are projected to grow more than 200% from 2026 to 2027, while EBITDA could rise even faster.
This growth is expected to be supported by expansion plans. The company recently announced it will add 310 MW of capacity in Finland, which is set to come online next year and help meet rising demand.
Overall, while Nebius remains a strong growth story in AI infrastructure, the downgrade suggests that, for now, the risk-reward looks more balanced after the recent rally. At current levels, the firm sees better opportunities in other stocks, particularly CoreWeave (CRWV) and Applied Digital (APLD).
Is NBIS Stock a Good Buy?
On TipRanks, NBIS has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on nine Buys and one Hold. The average Nebius price target of $165.20 implies nearly 14% upside potential from current levels.
