Oil prices plunged below $100 (April 8) following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostile attacks. At the time of writing, the global oil benchmark Brent (CM:BZ) was down 11.04% at $96.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CM:CL) plunged 14.19% to $94.80 per barrel. Prices initially dropped as much as 15% on the news.
Meet Samuel – Your Personal Investing Prophet
- Start a conversation with TipRanks’ trusted, data-backed investment intelligence
- Ask Samuel about stocks, your portfolio, or the market and get instant, personalized insights in seconds
In this fast-evolving geopolitical landscape, the key question for investors is: Should you buy oil stocks now? The answer varies by oil industry segment.
- Downstream Boost – Refiners like Valero Energy (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) benefit from lower crude input costs below $100. This helps expand refining margins, making them attractive buys amid the slump.
- Upstream Pressure – Producers like ExxonMobil (XOM) and oilfield services firms such as Halliburton (HAL) or Schlumberger (SLB) face revenue squeezes from falling crude prices, straining budgets and weighing on stock prices amid volatility.
Here’s What Happened
Ahead of the 8 p.m. deadline set by Trump on April 7, he posted on Truth Social (DJT) that the U.S. would pause planned strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants. The ceasefire hinges on Iran fully and immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump noted the U.S. received Iran’s 10-point proposal as a “solid starting point for talks.”
In the post, he added, “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.”
Which Is the Best Oil Stock, According to Analysts?
We used the TipRanks Stock Comparison Tool to determine which stock out of the six mentioned above is currently favored by analysts. As we can see from the chart below, refiners like VLO lead with explosive 1-year gains (+133.9%) despite year-to-date slumps. They are also backed by solid TipRanks Smart Scores, ranging from 8 to a Perfect 10. Analysts see moderate upside across MPC, PSX, and VLO as cheap oil bolsters margins.
Among the upstream players, SLB bucks the trend with a StrongBuy consensus and 10.2% upside potential, signaling resilient service demand. XOM and HAL, however, face downside targets due to crude sensitivity.
