Brent crude futures (BZ), the international benchmark for oil, have risen 42% to $112 per barrel since the start of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28. The price could nearly double to $200 and cause demand destruction if the war stretches past June, according to Macquarie Group. In this scenario, gas prices at the pump could surge to $7 per gallon compared to the current price of $3.98.
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Macquarie Sees $200 Oil Risk as War Timeline Remains Uncertain
Macquarie assigns a 40% probability to its bull case of oil reaching $200. The firm notes that the more likely scenario is for the war to end by the start of April and for oil prices to ease with limited effects on the U.S. economy and global growth.
Iran has yet to respond to a 15-point peace framework from the U.S., although a response could arrive today, according to CBS News. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 ministers that the war will likely continue for another two to four weeks.