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Nvidia Stock: China Could Be the Biggest Wild Card in NVDA Earnings

Story Highlights
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he believes China’s market will open to U.S. chip firms over time, even after the Trump-Xi summit failed to deliver a clear deal on AI chip sales.
  • Wall Street remains upbeat on Nvidia, with a Strong Buy consensus and an average NVDA price target of $282.35, implying 27% upside.
Nvidia Stock: China Could Be the Biggest Wild Card in NVDA Earnings

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), a leading chipmaker that powers much of the AI boom, is heading into earnings with one big issue still hanging over the stock: China.

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CEO Jensen Huang said this week that he still thinks China will open its market to U.S. chip firms over time. “I feel that in due course, the market will become more open,” Huang told Bloomberg Television. His comment came after a Trump-Xi summit in Beijing failed to produce a clear deal on AI chip sales.

Not so long ago, China was once a key market for Nvidia. Huang has said China’s AI chip market could be worth about $50 billion a year. However, U.S. export curbs and China’s push to back local chip firms have hit Nvidia hard there. As a result, the company’s China AI chip sales have fallen sharply.

Investors Watch for China Clues

The U.S. has cleared some Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips, including Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), ByteDance, and JD.com (JD). Still, no chips have been shipped yet because China has not granted local import approval.

Meanwhile, Huang has pushed back on the idea of a full ban on AI chip sales to China. In his view, blocking U.S. firms from the market would not stop China’s AI growth. Instead, it could push China to build a tech stack that sits outside U.S. reach.

For now, the main question is whether China can once again become a real growth driver for Nvidia. Any update from Huang on that front could carry almost as much weight as the earnings numbers themselves.

Is NVDA a Good Stock to Buy?

Turning to the Street, Nvidia Corporation has a Strong Buy consensus. based on 39 analysts’ ratings. The average NVDA price target is $282.35, implying a 27% upside from the current price.

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