Culper Research has released a new report announcing a short position in Nvidia (NVDA) stock. The firm argued that Nvidia’s real China exposure is much larger than what the company has claimed publicly. Nvidia said its China compute business fell to “zero” after U.S. export restrictions in April 2025. But Culper claims the opposite, saying billions of dollars in GPUs still moved into China through middlemen.
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New trading tool for NVDA bearsAccording to the report, “over 20% of Nvidia’s FY 2026 compute revenues remained driven by China,” aided by illegal diversion and Southeast Asian pass‑through entities.
Megaspeed at the Center of Culper’s Claims
Culper’s report focuses on Megaspeed, a Singapore cloud firm that Nvidia has publicly defended. Culper claims Megaspeed was secretly backed by Alibaba (BABA) through shell companies and moved billions of dollars of Nvidia‑powered servers into China.
The report pointed to filings showing Megaspeed’s balance sheet jumping from $33 million to $3 billion in one year, driven by $2.9 billion in “refundable deposits.”
Culper also pointed to trade records showing that Megaspeed’s Malaysia unit, Speedmatrix, brought in $4.6 billion in servers from December 2024 to January 2026. About $4 billion of that came from Aivres Systems, an Nvidia OEM partner once linked to China’s Inspur Group.
Culper Warns China Is Cutting Nvidia Out
Culper said the real risk now is that China is actually cutting Nvidia out, pointing to new rules that block foreign AI chips and to much smaller orders in early 2026. One China tech executive told the firm, “There are very few orders in China … Nvidia’s market share in China will decline this year.”
Culper concluded that Nvidia faces a “massive air gap” in forward estimates and that the stock is vulnerable as China’s demand truly collapses for the first time.
What Is the Prediction for NVDA Stock?
Turning to Wall Street, NVDA stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 40 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. At $277.23, the average Nvidia stock price target implies a 22.76% upside potential.
