Nvidia (NVDA) is back in the spotlight after the U.S. President Donald Trump approved conditional exports of the company’s high-performance H200 AI chips to select Chinese customers. The move marks a major shift in U.S. tech policy and could unlock significant revenue opportunities for Nvidia. But with geopolitical risks still high, investors are also bracing for a new wave of uncertainty for NVDA stock.
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While the H200 will be allowed for export, Trump made it clear that Nvidia’s newest Blackwell chips and the upcoming Rubin line will remain fully restricted.
What Lies Ahead for Nvidia?
Nvidia’s revenue growth continues to be driven largely by the U.S., led by its booming data center segment. While global demand for AI chips remains strong, strict export rules have weighed heavily on Nvidia’s sales in China, leading to a noticeable revenue decline in the region. Below is a screenshot for reference.
Now, with partial access to China restored, Nvidia could see a meaningful lift in its data center sales. The move may help the company rebalance its geographic revenue mix, strengthen its competitive position, and reduce its reliance on the U.S. and Europe. After all, China remains one of the world’s biggest and most important AI chip markets.
Selling in China Won’t Be Easy for Nvidia
For Nvidia, the path ahead isn’t entirely smooth. The new rules require Nvidia to pay 25% of the revenue from these sales to the U.S. government, which could pressure margins. The approval is also conditional, meaning future policy changes, geopolitical tensions, or national-security reviews could quickly alter or limit shipments again.
Additionally, China’s situation has also changed since Nvidia last supplied chips there. Nvidia’s H200 chips are one generation behind its latest Blackwell lineup. As a result, whether Chinese companies will actually purchase the H200 will depend on evolving local conditions. In late July, the Cyberspace Administration of China even summoned Nvidia over alleged security risks related to its H20 AI chips sold in the country.
With local companies rapidly advancing their own AI hardware and increasing competition in the market, selling in China again is not going to be easy for Nvidia.
What Is the Price Target for NVDA Stock?
In the near term, the move could lift sentiment around NVDA stock. But longer-term performance will depend on how stable the new export framework remains and how smoothly Nvidia navigates China’s regulatory environment and competition from local chipmakers.
According to TipRanks, NVDA stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 39 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. At $258.0, the Nvidia average share price target implies a 39.05% upside potential.
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