NVDA Earnings Today: Nvidia Is Key to Keeping the AI Chip Rally Alive

Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is reporting earnings today after the close, and the results could either support the chip stock rally or add to investor worries that the sector has become stretched. The stock is up 19% in 2026 and has gained more than 34% from its late-March low. At the same time, the options market is pricing in a 5.9% move after the report, which shows that investors expect a meaningful reaction. The setup is complicated because Nvidia has created a very high bar for itself.

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Indeed, JoAnne Feeney of Advisors Capital Management told Bloomberg that investors now expect the company to beat estimates and raise guidance every quarter, so anything less could disappoint the market. However, the size of the beat and raise matters too, as Nvidia has declined the day after each of its last three earnings reports despite solid numbers, as shown below. Still, the broader chip sector has been strong this earnings season, with companies like Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD) rallying after results. More specifically, 93% of chipmakers have topped earnings expectations this season.

Nevertheless, investors want proof that demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips remains strong and that big tech capex from Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) can continue to fuel AI infrastructure demand. This is especially true as competition from AMD and custom chips from Alphabet and Amazon grows. However, it is worth noting that Nvidia still dominates the AI accelerator market, and higher estimates have made the valuation look less extreme, with the stock trading at below 24 times estimated earnings versus a 10-year average near 36.

What Is a Good Price for NVDA?

Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on Nvidia stock based on 40 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average Nvidia price target of $281.97 per share implies 25.2% upside potential.